Post Election Developments in Ethiopia: The UN Should Come In

By: Abegaz Bellete

Recent developments in Ethiopia, after the May 15, 2005 election, indicate that things are not going well in the desired direction. It is a situation where the ruling party EPRDF is determined to stay in power by any means available. The concern of the EU observers on the delay of vote release by the NEB, the EPRDF�s propaganda and heavy handedness and the grievances of the opposition indicate that things are getting out of the way. The intervention of the UN is desirable at this stage before things explode out of hand.

The EPRDF and NEB could no more hide their very scandalous nature and act like saints in the whole election exercise. The NEB is using the same strategy of delaying event in the vote counting process as it did to the local election observers in order to create fertile conditions to manipulate the outcome of the May 15, 2005 election in every way possible (vote number changing, ballot box stealing/burning, ballot box emptying, ballot box stuffing and etc.). It is interesting to see now international observers increasingly becoming aware of the facts. It was obvious that the delay of vote release by the NEB was a deliberate effort to rig the election in cooperation with the ruling party, EPRDF. The EU is finally commendable to realize the reality on the ground as opposed to the less critical statements of the Carter Center. However, the EU failed calling the spade a spade for diplomatic reasons. We hope they will do it at last. This election has never been free and fair for the opposition prior to voting, during the voting day and in the aftermath except the extraordinary courage shown by the public. Some urban areas might have relative freedom during the voting time. But in remote and less accessible towns, and the entire rural areas, the EPRDF cadres and militia have exercised excessive force before and after the election. The decisive opposition victory lead over the EPRDF has been amid all these anomalies. Yet, EPRDF manipulated and still is manipulating the vote count by chasing, terrorizing and detaining opposition supporters and delaying results in many localities. The opposition has since voiced its concern from the day EPRDF announced its victory without any tangible evidences. It is clear now that there is no solution to the impasse between the opposition and the EPRDF except holding new elections in areas where fraud has taken place in the presence of international observers.

Some EPRDF affiliated websites, as a counter to the EU statement and the opposition�s grievances, try to justify that the delay of the vote release has been due to the demand of the opposition and its frequent complaints. The opposition has every right to document every irregularity as long as it continues to get the evidence and as long as the EPRDF continues to change the figures in its favor. Whatever demands the opposition might have, the NEB has been releasing every disputed result. The NEB has taken a position officially that it will not be hindered by any particular demand of any party to release data. The reality on the ground for the delay of the results is either the NEB did not have any control of the result or has become a company to EPRDF in delaying it. It looks that it is posting vote results after getting the go ahead from the EPRDF. As usual, these EPRDF affiliated websites are trying to reason out based on false premises as a mechanism of damage control. These are the same websites that posted and praised a bogus poll conducted by Initiative Africa (IA) in which the EPRDF was projected to be a party that has strong support among urban dwellers. We challenged the survey scientifically and now the actual election tells us how far they were bent to distort the reality. These are the same website that told us that EPRDF will win in Addis Ababa underestimating the May 8, 2005 rally of the opposition (they claimed 20, 000 demonstrators).

The EPRDF and Company are on futile propaganda work that has totally been rejected by the Ethiopian people. Now the EPRDF and Company, and the NEB statements and releases are trying their level best to tell us that the rural population of Ethiopia is EPRDF�s strong support base. They use government resources and media to any length illegally to paint EPRDF as a God given party to Ethiopians.  It is not uncommon to observe international media outlets becoming a prey to the EPRDF propaganda. It is not uncommon to read the following sentences in many international media reports on Ethiopia: �EPRDF has a strong support among the rural population�, �Meles is one of the more progressive leaders of Africa�, �The EPRDF is widely favored to win the May 15, 2005 election over the fragile and under funded opposition�, �The EPRDF convincingly won the previous two elections�, �The opposition had previously held only 12 seats in parliament and will not be able to defeat EPRDF.� and �Ethiopia poll reveals rural - urban divide� These sentences are becoming common mistakes by many international news sources including the famous BBC, AP, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian, China�s Xinhua News Agency and some others. These newspapers seem to have a shallow knowledge of the Ethiopian society when they say that the ruling party has strong support among the rural population without any evidence. Mind you, urban people in Ethiopia live better life than the rural population. By all indicators and international research, poverty is prevalent among the rural population. There is no way where rural people prefer misery under EPRDF. Every Ethiopian living in urban areas has parents and or relatives in the rural areas. The most likely scenario is that losing election in urban areas is losing in rural areas too. If an urban dweller with better privileges is against EPRDF's policy, his/her disadvantaged parents and relatives in rural areas will have similar feelings. Ethiopia is not in the like of the US politics where majority Californians always support the democrats and the Southerners support the republicans on policy issues or societal values. In fact, the �ethnic federalism� that EPRDF introduced is a disadvantage to the EPRDF itself, be it in rural Ethiopia or Urban Ethiopia. It is disappointing to us Ethiopians that these news sources are not reporting the realty on the ground to their respective governments. We ask them why is that EPRDF has to be defeated in almost all areas, urban or rural, where international observers were present? For that matter, the EPRDF has come to May 15, 2005 election contest with the people of Ethiopia. The massive turn out of people throughout the country is a clear indication that Ethiopians need change of government. The opposition, CUD and UEDF, are just historical developments that emerged to lead the people�s protest against EPRDF. There is no way where EPRDF can win any meaningful parliamentary seats in situations like that.

The NEB has proved to be an offshoot of the EPRDF and its neutrality has been disproved now beyond any doubt. In the face of this blatant mischief by EPRDF, we hope the international community will not press the opposition and the EPRDF in the same manner. The international community should not be misled that the NEB and the legal system can bring any justice when the head of the ruling party is heard to announce its victory ahead of vote count. How independent and courageous are these organs to undo the claims of the ruling party?  The international community should refrain from any comments that undermine the right of the Ethiopian people. They should not insist that the opposition should accept whatever results declared by NEB. The government of Ethiopia should rather be pressed by the international community to accept the will of the people and not the opposition who are being robbed of their victory.

We ask opposition parties to demand the intervention of the UN to monitor and facilitate new election in disputed localities. It is highly important that the UN install peacekeeping force prior to the election time. The UN has helped to create peaceful environment and security in numerous countries of the world when people have to exercise their legitimate rights.  A dictatorial and racial government and party have besieged Ethiopians for the last fourteen years. Ethiopians now deserve to decide their future through the ballot box without fear, intimidation, imprisonment and killings. Failure of the UN to help Ethiopia will bring great danger to Ethiopians and the region as a whole. The government of Ethiopia and its top leaders including Prime Minster Meles Zenawi have already revealed publicly their motives to massacre Ethiopians unless EPRDF remains in power by forwarding the Rwandan example. As a first step of that plan, the Prime Minister, just after 12 hours of the start of vote casting, illegally banned any peaceful demonstration and ordered all security, police and militia in Addis Ababa to be under his direct command and has warned he will kill any peaceful protesters in the aftermath of the election. A day after vote casting, the EPRDF has declared victorious before 50% of the votes were even counted knowing the opposition have been leading by a wide margin. The indications so far is that PM Meles is preparing for unprecedented attack on the peaceful people of Ethiopia, much the same scale seen in Rwanda, if Ethiopians complain that their votes have been stolen. The UN must not wait until it sees bloodshed. Therefore it is high time now that opposition parties bring their case to the United Nations immediately to resolve the impasse and curb the danger looming over innocent Ethiopians.

In a net shell, the EPRDF and NEB are two sides of the same coin, which cannot hide their scandalous deeds in this whole election exercise. The NEB has proved to be an offshoot of the EPRDF and its neutrality has been disproved beyond any doubt in the whole election process. The massive turnout of people throughout the country is a clear indication that Ethiopians need change of government.  Contrary to the people�s expectation, the EPRDF has later manipulated the May 15, 2005 votes in many parts of rural Ethiopia. The NEB has served the interest of EPRDF in this context and thus any declaration of NEB in favor of EPRDF as a winning party is not acceptable. Re-election is necessary in areas where fraud has been indicated. It is a step forward for the EU observers to become aware of the facts on the ground that lead to the compromising of voting results, although they failed to state a spade a spade. We hope the Carter Center will revise its less-critical statements, released for lack of sufficient experience in the country, with the new developments coming out.  EPRDF and Company are on futile propaganda work that has totally been rejected by the Ethiopian people. Face mending by international media outlets cannot disguise the double standard of PM Meles Zenawi in the democratization of Ethiopia in general   and in this election in particular. It has no purpose except misinforming their respective governments from knowing the facts on the ground, whichever way is not useful. The intervention of the UN to keep peace, and monitor and facilitate new election in disputed localities is highly desirable. We ask the international community to advise PM Meles Zenawi to end his fourteen years of brutal dictatorship by respecting the will of the Ethiopian people and transferring power peacefully.