�A
Guide for the Perplexed�
(On the Future of Ethiopia)
Tecola W. Hagos
May 10, 2002
I.
General - Introduction
The
title of my article is not that original. It is taken from the
titles of two unrelated works: one by the medieval humanist
philosopher Maimonides (AD 1135-1204), and the other by an
economist of our own time E.F.Schumacher (1911-77). Maimonides
tried to reconcile reason and faith at a time when theological
dogmatism (fanaticism) was rampant in the Medieval World, and
Schumacher tried to teach us about the humble dignity of simple
small scale ventures at a time when grandiose projects financed by
the World Bank were creating havoc in the lives of hundreds of
millions of people all over the developing world. Thus, you may
appreciate my choice of title as illustrative or indicative of the
universal as well as the particular struggle of man for wisdom,
understanding, self-respect, and fellowship.
Some
young men and women of my generation lured first by the illusive
idea of western �democracy,� and still others seduced by the
promise of instantaneous wealth and idyllic societies of Marxist
thoughts were swallowing and regurgitating without digesting such
fantasies. We have witnessed in the last fifty years, numerous
people all over the developing world fighting and dying for
imported and alien political ideals without regard to existing
profound knowledge of �traditional� communities. The new
elites of traditional communities were digging and living within
wells of conformity of their own constructions, which was most
harmful to most of their fellow citizens.
We
too, the �educated� few Ethiopians of the last fifty years,
stagnated within narrow wells of conformity, and hardly ever
allowed original thinking to seep in, which would have helped us
move away from the doldrums of political ideology. Even worse, we
desperately tried to imitate our aristocrats and feudal class in
our personal behavior. We never truly internalized any of the
democratic principles we pontificated, in our own daily lives. We
are hypocrites and delusional. Whether we are promoting universal
suffrage, or democratic centralism, it seems we were always the
center of every political structure we intended to erect for
Ethiopia. We seem to have no genuine respect of our fellow
Ethiopians who toil from Sun Rise to Sun Set maintaining the
continued existence of our nation. Even though most of us are the
sons and daughters of such people, we have no stomach for rural
life or for work that requires physical exertion.
At
the very beginning, let me state very clearly that none of what I
have written here would be of any consequence without freedom of
speech, expression, and association. The existence of a free press
(media) is an absolute necessity for the future of Ethiopia. We
need a vigorous, self-starter, and courageous free press. I put
much of my faith in a free press because it is going to be the
eyes and ears of all Ethiopians. Government controlled press must
take a backseat and allow private press and media to lead in the
information, debate, and often irreverent questioning of
government officials. Especially, during a transition period, the
role of our free press and media is of utmost importance. It is
the press that is going to do most of the vigilant watching of the
activities of both politicians and military commanders; thus,
keeping everyone straight. It is also the free press that would
inform the public of inefficiency and corruption in our government
and the armed forces. A healthy national economic development owes
much to a free press to expose all predatory and monopolistic
activities of businessmen and women. I have assumed much to be
done by a free press and media. Otherwise, my ideas will fold as
wishful thinking.
One
additional fact that we need to keep in mind is that we are
blessed with incredibly strong social values that predate both
Christianity and Islam. Our strong sense of independence, sense of
justice, individual accountability, and fairness or equal
treatment of individuals in similar circumstances are our bedrock
values. Ethiopia is a classic example of a synergy, where the
whole is profoundly greater than the parts. Thus, for the sake of
our present crisis, I urge people to concentrate on the ideas
offered here and not on the genealogy or evolution of my political
views.
II.
The �Kupamanduka� Syndrome
At
an international conference held in July of 2000, Amartya Sen,
Nobel Laureate for Economics (1998), illustrated his concern of a
stagnant society that did not adopt itself to new reality, citing
from ancient Sanskrit texts a story of �kupamanduka,� a simple
story of a well-frog (a frog that dwells all its life in a well),
which refused to accept the reality that existed outside of its
tiny world. [Amartya Sen, �Why Human Security� presentation at
the International Symposium on Human Security, Tokyo, 28 July
2000, 7. The article was in defense of globalization, but relevant
to our situation of limited vision.]
We,
Ethiopian �politicians� have all become �well-frogs� who
dwell in our respective tiny wells of political organizations. We
could neither see beyond the confinement of our own ambitions and
over the walls of our ideological wells that we constructed, nor
lift our imagination to see beyond the prejudices that blind us.
Thus, we are effectively marginalized and neutered from any potent
and profound engagement in the life of Ethiopia. Our lives touch
the lives of most of our countrymen only tangentially.
Definitely,
we are coming into another crossroads in the turbulent history of
our beloved country. Meles Zenawi and his treasonous regime are
heading into a catastrophe of their own making and political
oblivion. In anticipation of that eventuality, all kinds of
political groups and individuals are trying to get the best
possible political leverage by placing themselves in the thickest
skirmish for popularity. In times of uncertainty, everyone seems
to be in his or her best behavior.
We see all forms of maneuvers by all of these groups, some
sophisticated, but most repetitious, clumsy, and obvious.
I
am supportive of anyone forming political team or organization,
and actively presenting his or her program to the people of
Ethiopia and campaigning to win leadership positions. However, I
have come to the conclusion that we have too many �Chiefs� and
too few �Indians� at the present time. Not only that but also
the fact that every single political organization is hovering to
land on some political arrangement, more or less a repeat of the
1991 undemocratic transition of power from one dictatorial
political group to another equally undemocratic political group,
in disregard of the rights of millions of Ethiopian citizens.
History may well repeat itself, and that is the tragedy that we
may not have learned much from events of the last ten years.
Almost
every current Ethiopian political organization is structured based
on ideas of long worn-out elitist class structure with no basis or
connection to the reality surrounding Ethiopian citizens.
Membership in those political organizations is limited to a tiny
segment of urbanites (mostly small business people) and
semi-feudal professionals. Over all, they represent a fraction of
the Ethiopian population. As far as I can surmise, such
organizations are insignificant and are not by any stretch of the
imagination representatives of the people of Ethiopia. In fact, it
is sheer arrogance and narcism for such teams ever to dream of
acquiring state power through such sleek structures.
Thus, I venture out with suggestions for our future
participation in the political and economic life of our country.
Our history shows without exception that we are not lacking of
ambitious individuals who would risk their lives and their future
in order to acquire political power. Of course, since our nation
is a mosaic of different cultures, the intensity of the desire of
individuals for power is as diverse as the communities that
nourished such political ambitions. My very general observation is
that some Ethiopians especially highlanders tend to think in
hierarchically structured militaristic political organizations,
whereas by contrast Ethiopian lowlanders tend to think more in
horizontal power division with some hierarchical tendencies. Both
groups are far from safeguarding and respecting individual rights
either political or human. Both have strength in some aspects, and
weakness in others. The secret here is to learn from both
experiences, and build on the strength of both.
It
is very easy to put forth grandiose political and economic
programs at a time one is seeking support from the Ethiopian
people. The problem starts after the acquisition of political
power and command of the military or armed men (women) of
Ethiopia. Thus, in order to avoid past mistakes of allowing
insignificant conspiratorial groups from taking state power and
use the armed men of Ethiopia to impose on the people of Ethiopia
new dictators, the armed men of Ethiopia will not be under the
command of any politician or political group.
Every
politician who is seeking state power has to work at the
grassroots level to promote the political and economic program of
his or her organization. This time around, no political group is
going to take advantage of the transition situation as it happened
in 1975-78, and 1991 where groups with few constituents were
treated as if they were legitimate representatives of the people
of Ethiopia. During the coming transition period, the most
important function of the transitional government is to make sure
that the people of Ethiopia fully participate in their political
future. There after, when elections are held, it is up to the
people of Ethiopia to elect their representatives and their
leaders. Therefore, there should not be a conference like the one
in 1991 where few political organizations (some with less than
fifty members) decide which political groups are going to lead the
country while the people of Ethiopia watch in silence as their
fate is determined by a handful of strangers!
As
indicated above, the best possible procedure after Meles and
associates are driven out of office is to have a short transition
period of two years. No political organization will be allowed to
participate in the transition government, but neutral and
honorable Ethiopians, who were not officials of the governments of
Meles Zenawi or Mengistu Hailemariam, from around the country will
form a transition government for the sole purpose of preparing the
country for universal election to be held in two years time, and
to draft a constitution. My suggestion is to have village elders,
businessmen, schoolteachers, retired labor leaders, and retired
officials from Haile Selassie period to run the transitional
government. Religious leaders will contribute to the transition
period through their spiritual guidance and prayer. The detail of
the process on organizing or holding elections to form a regular
government may not be that easy at this point to write about.
However, we must have a clear understanding of the meaning of a
transitional government.
The
transition period is strictly a period for the normalization of
the situation, the administration of the civil service, the
collection of taxes, the payment of international debts, the
drafting of a new constitution, and the organization of election
districts. It is not a period where political organizations take
over the government by forming a coalition, and then fight it out
with each other in order to gain sole power, as was the case
during the last ten years. The individuals who form the transition
government will not be allowed to run for any elected office, or
be appointed for ministerial or other governmental senior offices
once the transition period is over and a new government is formed.
Over
the centuries our men of arms have been manipulated, abused, and
used as instruments of oppression, violence, and murder of the
civilian Ethiopian population. To take as an example of our own
time, starting from Emperor Haile Selassie I all the way down to
Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian men of arms have been used by such
unscrupulous men to commit horrendous acts of violence and
brutality whereby they had murdered tens of thousands of
Ethiopians. This time, Ethiopia�s men in arms are going to serve
the people of Ethiopia by insuring that no sleek process is going
to put them one more time in the hands of politicians.
The
question of what must be done right now is the most important
enquiry for the future of our country. Before we get to the point
of the establishment of a transitional government, we must have a
clear idea how the present government is going to be replaced by a
transitional government. Meles and associates are not going to
pack their things and leave one day. Why should they? Thus, either
it is going to happen through massive civil disobedience where
there is a complete breakdown of civil government, or the current
government is pushed out of office by force. However, the types of
protests and demonstrations we have had so far (simple and limited
nonviolent protests and demonstrations) will not achieve any
change of government.
However,
if there is massive civil disobedience due to the unbearable
brutality of Meles, the likelihood of a military takeover and the
establishment of a government by some of the people who are part
of the current Ethiopian government in association with some
political organizations is a real possibility. Such eventualities
will be very tragic setbacks for the unity and territorial
integrity of Ethiopia. The coming of another dictatorial
government formed by recycled officials and opportunist political
organizations, or the establishment of a transitional government
by political invitees on their own will result in the breakup of
Ethiopia. Thus, I believe there is an absolute need for an armed
struggle. The armed struggle must be under one command and should
have as one of its goals to win the support and ultimately the
incorporation of the Ethiopian Army as part of the new Ethiopian
liberated military--a new armed force that will not be under the
direct command of the future transitional government or the
regular government for a certain period of time.
The
armed struggle would have three distinct goals: (1) to drive out
the current government of Meles Zenawi, (2) to delaminate the
Ethiopian army from the clutches of politicians in order to allow
the army to defend and preserve the territorial integrity and
sovereignty of Ethiopia, and (3) to protect the individual human
and political rights of every Ethiopian without regard to
ethnicity, social status, age, language, gender, or religion.
III.
Delaminating Military Power from Political Power
As
pointed out above the Ethiopian armed men and women were used and
abused by every political leader that ever lead Ethiopia. With
such dismal records, one would expect some new ideas from our
future leaders and their political organizations. Unfortunately,
the record of the last thirty years is very clear that no creative
solution was offered by any group. Instead, we had ideology
without content, ambition without discipline, and rampant
corruption.
It
is simply a matter of studying the political and economic
programs, and observing the activities of Ethiopian political
organizations and their support groups, to see that in the last
thirty years nothing creative has been presented by any group. The
forms of political programs (structures) that are offered from
leftist organizations to anachronistic supporters of the
aristocracy simply do not see the people of Ethiopia as an end in
themselves or as the legitimate source of political power. The
ambition of every leader political organization I know of is to
get the army under its command and thereafter impose by force its
will (political and economic programs) and its leadership on the
people of Ethiopia. As recent as two weeks ago at a demonstration,
I listened to speech after speech by leaders of political
organizations who are �threatening� us openly that they are
going to implement their political programs even at the time of
transition! It is both a disappointment and alarming for me to
hear the voices of such raw ambition.
Three
years ago, in desperation, I even suggested the concept of lottocracy,
whereby political power would be transferred from one individual
to another by a general national lottery. [See Tecola W. Hagos,
Demystifying Political Thought, Power, and Economic
Development: A Harvard Lecture, Washington DC: Khepera
Publishers, 1999, 94-95.] The idea was offered as a possible
solution to Ethiopia�s chronic problem of violent dictatorial
rulers. It was a simple scheme aimed to discourage the formation
of cliquish, ethnic, or religious stratification. Some of my
critics said that I was trivializing an extremely serious problem
by suggesting a process that is no different from buying a lottery
ticket from a grocery store in order to win a prize. That was
precisely my point. We seem to think of political power as a prize
for our own personal satisfaction and not for public service.
Maybe my cynicism was wasted on such people.
If
we take away from our politicians the power to command the armed
men of Ethiopia, we will be able to control the type of future
damage the Ethiopian people might suffer, and save them from the
type of harm people had suffered under past dictatorial leaders.
There is no doubt in my mind as to the direct connection between
the acquisition of political power and subsequent abuse and
violation of the human and political rights of Ethiopian citizens
by leaders who were able to command the military to do their
murderous work. This is not very difficult to understand.
Because
of the serious threat to the national integrity and sovereignty of
Ethiopia, exceptional steps must be adopted. The most important
aspect of my suggestion is the idea of taking away from our
politicians all military command for a limited period of time. The
military will have its own command structure and will carry out
only its defense duties without the interference, manipulation, or
influence of any particular political organization. This will
insure that our armed men will have undivided devotion to the
preservation and integrity of our beloved nation. On the Other
hand the Ethiopian Army is forbidden from any political activities
in support or against any political organization, and will not be
engaged in civilian administrative duties.
The
armed men of Ethiopia must carry out the following goals:
1.
Defend and preserve the territorial integrity and sovereignty of
Ethiopia.
2.
Restore unity and harmony to all of Ethiopia.
3.
Prepare the groundwork for the establishment of political and
civic democracy.
4.
Empower the people of Ethiopia with full political power, and
insure and safeguard democratic and human rights for all
Ethiopians.
5.
Remove all divisive schemes seeded by Meles Zenawi and the EPRDF.
6.
Free all political prisoners, including those imprisoned TPLF
leaders and leaders from other political organizations.
7.
Bring to justice all senior government officials who participated
in the dismemberment of Ethiopia as reflected in The Hague
Boundary Commission decision.
My
critics may say that my suggestions are, in fact, a nostalgic
reversal to a chauvinistic past that Ethiopians have already
discarded. There is also the danger of the Ethiopian military
taking over the government of Ethiopia as it did in the 1970s with
Mengistu Hailemariam emerging as one of the worst brutal dictator
in Ethiopian history. Mechanisms of safety, such as �check and
balance� systems, could be installed to minimize the likelihood
of another military dictatorship. Here is one area that
experienced Ethiopians may help solve the problem of any cyclical
dictatorship.
Trying to preserve the territorial integrity and
sovereignty of ones own country is never chauvinistic. In all
probability, lack of patriotic feelings about ones own country
might have been the main reasons why several countries were easy
victims of a handful of colonial powers. Patriotism includes the
act of selfless service, service without anticipated reward. It is
uplifting to remember the story of the Roman General Lucius
Quintius Cincinnatus who was recalled from where he was ploughing
his farm to be entrusted with the highest office of
�Dictatore� and save Rome from impending doom in 458 B.C. And
after defeating the enemies of Rome, Cincinnatus promptly gave up
his power to go back to his farming.
It
is not beyond our reach to have such noble spirited Ethiopians who
would step up to defend Ethiopia and not just lust for power. In
fact, if we look back into our history, we find two of our
greatest generals, Alula aba Nega and Balcha aba Nefso, who
voluntarily came out of their retirement in their advanced age
(close to eighty years) and in poor health, to fight one more time
for their beloved country even though they were badly treated and
exiled by ungrateful Emperors.
IV.
Building a Wall between Politicians and Armed Men (Women)
A.
Ethiopian Men of Arms:
The
monumental task of keeping the Ethiopian army away from the
command of politicians must be carried out through the guidance
and leadership of individuals whose only purpose is the defense of
Ethiopia, the preservation of the territorial integrity and
sovereignty of Ethiopia, and the safeguarding of individual human
rights of every Ethiopian irrespective of ethnic origins,
nationality, status, religion, or gender. This is meant to protect
the armed men of Ethiopia from the abuses and inequities of
Ethiopian politicians. It is advisable to establish a single
central command with civilian members as leaders.
In
order to insure that no political organization or individual
politicians exert any influence on the military, there would be an
absolute ban on evolvement of the armed men of Ethiopia in
political rallies or elections for the duration of the period of
the struggle. This is a voluntary act by the members of the armed
forces and not an imposition to deny the democratic and civil
rights of any member of the forces. During conscription and
voluntary enlistment every individual recruit is given a chance to
remove himself if he does not accept that condition of military
service.
The
commanders of the armed forces will not be allowed to run for
elected offices, nor for political appointments as president,
prime minister, ministers or vice ministers, ambassadors,
directors, general managers of public enterprises, nor as
religious leaders as Abuns or Imams et cetera even after the
transition period has ended and a regular government is elected
into office (at least for two consecutive regular national
elections). They will not participate in the election of
government officials. They could be allowed into general and
normal citizenship rights of election only after the second
regular election of the government of Ethiopia had been carried
out.
Every
member of the Ethiopian armed forces would observe strict code of
conduct and would be subjected to strict discipline. Ideally, all
members of the armed forces are volunteers. None is forced against
his or her will to join the Ethiopian army. Moreover, in order to
ensure and maintain the wall erected between the Ethiopian armed
forces and Ethiopian politicians and civilian government
officials, no member of the Ethiopian armed forces without prior
approval of the council of Commanders may discuss or negotiate any
formal agreement, or understanding with any political party or
leader of such political party during the period of the
transitional government and during the first two elections of the
Ethiopian government.
The
advantages of building a wall between our current political
leaders (including all aspiring politicians) and the military will
help us build Ethiopia�s true professional military. The
advantages of such structure are very much dependent on the type
of people who must sacrifice every personal ambition of political
appointment, wealth, limelight, and public adulation and serve
away from political skirmishes in obscurity. Of course, those
political leaders who believe they can use their talent better as
ministers, ambassadors, and in other political appointments are
free to choose that part of public service with the full knowledge
that they will have nothing to do with the armed men of Ethiopia
once they decide where to serve.
B.
Political Groups and Politicians, Labor (trade) Unions and
Professional Associations:
In
my books, essays and articles, I may have harshly criticized
interest groups such as associations, the mehale
sefaries et cetera; and political organizations such as
the EPLF, EPRP, Meison, Olf, TPLF et cetera not because I have
personal hatred of individual members of such groups but because
they have inherently defective political and economic programs or
views. And at least EPLF and TPLF have caused us tremendous harm.
Even though I listed them all in one statement, some of these
groups have been far more destructive and anti-Ethiopia than
others. In fact, groups like the mehale
sefaris are very patriotic but suffer from over zealous
opportunism and insatiable appetite for power. Having said that, I
suggest that even detestable political organizations like some I
mentioned here have legitimate rights to present their programs.
There
should be absolutely no precondition or special requirement for
any Ethiopian to express his political views in speech or in
writing, in association with other Ethiopians to form political
organizations, or present an individual as a candidate for any
elected office. There are very limited exceptions to this general
understanding of unfettered freedom of expression and association.
In the interest of maintaining our unity and social harmony,
everyone is admonished and discouraged from ethnic based political
organizations, attacks on personal identity of individuals,
personal libelous statements, and from forming and participating
in religious dogmatic fanaticism as a political base.
In
the new Ethiopian transition period, no politician or political
group will be allowed to have a private army. In fact, the only
army in Ethiopia is going to be the Ethiopian Army. Since every
Ethiopian�s right to form political or professional
organizations is ensured, there is no need for private armies or
liberation fronts. Politicians ought to concentrate developing
their political and economic programs, and teaching and explaining
to the general public their goals and hopes for Ethiopia.
There
seems to be confusion between the role of professional
organizations and political parties. Strictly speaking, I may have
to assert that associations should not elect political leaders in
the name of the members of their associations, and should not send
representatives to be part of a government. The right role for
associations is to influence their members to support political
parties and political leaders, and make their own deals with those
they support. There are several reasons why it is not a good idea
to have associations be involved directly as political actors. One
of the main reasons is to avoid syndicalism or syndicalist
structure that could disrupt the economy of the country. In fact,
it is advisable to organize a labor party so that the interest of
members of associations, trade unions, or labor unions may be
represented in the government of Ethiopia.
V.
Reversing The Hague Boundary Decision
The
second most important mission of the armed men of Ethiopia is to
reverse the illegal decision of The Hague Boundary Commission
entered 13 April 2002. In order to carry out that mission quickly
and effectively, the military will/should be entrusted with the
duty to arrest and bring to trial all the players in Ethiopia -
Eritrea boundary decision. The Hague Boundary case is the most
important assignment to the military second only to the duty to
preserve the integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia. The removal of
Meles Zenawi and associates from political power, and trying them
for treason is the key to the nullification of The Hague Boundary
Commission�s decision.
It
is absolutely necessary to have the activities of Meles and
associates declared by an Ethiopian court to have been treasonous
thereby preempting the �act of state� defense that would have
been the backbone of any claim to enforce the decision of the
Commission by the Eritrean government, the United Nations, or any
other government claiming derivative right. Therefore, not only it
is absolutely necessary that Meles and his associates be forced
out of office but also they must be arrested or prevented from
living the country. The arrest of Meles and associates will also
prevent foreign governments, who benefited from The Hague
decision, from harming or murdering them in an effort to silence
those treasonous officials from recanting or testifying about
their role in the dismemberment of Ethiopia. In the unlikely
situation that Meles and associates escape arrest and run out of
the country they should be hunted down as common criminals or
tried in an absentia or both.
It
is only a disciplined military that can effectively carry out such
extremely serious missions. We have seen in the last ten years how
the government of Meles Zenawi used and abused the judicial
process to promote its political life by selectively bringing to
court former officials of the defunct government of Mengistu
Hailemariam. We do not want to repeat such process and play with
our public when the very existence of Ethiopia as a nation is at
stake. Time, ought to be of profound concern to us all.
V.
New Faces
What
I believe Ethiopians are starving for most is to see a new face of
political leadership. They have had their fill of stern brutal
faces of dictators as far as living memory can take us. The face
of compassion, and some humor is absolutely necessary at this
juncture of our history. I personally want to see a smiling face,
the face of a leader that is laughing at his own expense. We spend
too much time observing ritualistic mannerisms that we seem to
have forgotten the primary purpose of life in general. Simply put,
as far as I can tell, the purpose of life is enlightened living.
Why do we have to burden ourselves with psychological deadweight
when we are already overburdened with massive social, political,
and economic difficulties?
Political
involvement is fine, but it is not the only thing in our lives.
People need have private lives, with adequate time to appreciate
�small mercies� of simple human pleasures and happiness. I am
skeptical of any leader that has no private life, or time to
appreciate the simple pleasures of life, and have healthy human
interactions with social friends and acquaintances. For example, I
do not believe that a pious hermit could ever be a great leader,
who would inspire us to be responsive, sensitive, and responsible
citizens. One has to be in
the world, and not by its side or above it, in order to be useful
to others.
Conclusion
There
is really no conclusion to this article. It is open ended.
However, I may reemphasize certain points on how we ought to
relate to different ideologies. I dare say that there is nothing
intrinsic in any ideology, what matters is what we bring to it. On
the level of idea, the reality of ideologies is not similar to a
physical reality of social life. We use ideas to help us solve
problems of survival. And human survival is as much communal as it
is also individual. We must seek the best idea that might help us
solve our social, political, and economic problems. It (idea) must
be practical, long lasting, and least harmful to the individual as
well as for the community.
It
is because of my search for such solutions and new ideas that I
allowed myself the arrogance to suggest untested governmental
systems to my fellow Ethiopians. There are hidden and obvious
risks in any experimental and new ideas. And my suggestions are
not exceptions to that general anomaly. I believe I have presented
here a kernel of truth and solutions that may grow into
full-fledged panacea to our cyclical problems. One must love and
respect the people of Ethiopia, I mean every Ethiopian, warts and
all, if one wants to implement my ideas. Less than such
unconditional devotion will not work to solve our uniquely
difficult problems.
Dr.
Tecola W. Hagos,
Copyright
� 2002, Washington DC, June 2002
NB.
This paper is presented to provoke honest discussion. The web
sites where the article appears are not endorsing or promoting the
ideas in the article. They are merely providing a vehicle for
publication.
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