The 75-year-old water-sharing treaty that has kept Nile basin countries from warring over the region�s most precious resource is in jeopardy as East African signatories consider pulling out.

The 1929 Nile Basin Treaty regulates Nile water usage by the 10 countries that share the river�s watershed: Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Congo.

The agreement was originally concluded between Britain (acting for Sudan) and Egypt. Britain pledged on behalf of its then colonies not to undertake works that would reduce the volume of Nile water reaching Egypt.

After Sudan gained independence in 1956, it called for a revision or abrogation of the 1929 agreement to allow a fairer distribution of waters.

The total annual discharge of the main Nile between Egypt and Sudan was measured at 74-billion cubic metres when a new agreement was drawn up in 1959. Of this Egypt was allocated two-thirds (or 55,5-billion cubic metres) while Sudan was allowed to use the remaining 18,5-billion cubic metres.

But, the 1959 agreement made little provision for other states that the Nile passes through. It says only that �once other upstream riparian [riverside] states claim a share of the Nile waters, both countries [Egypt and Sudan] will study together these claims and adopt a unified view thereon.�

�If such studies result in the allocation of a specified volume of Nile water to one or the other of the upper riparian states, then the amount shall be deducted in equal shares from the share of the two countries,� it goes on to say.

The later treaty also forbids upstream nations from conducting any activity that could threaten the water quotas of Egypt and Sudan.

Now, fears are growing that some of the countries concerned will do exactly that -- and most of the concerns are focusing on Ethiopia.

Ethiopia contributes about 86% of the Nile�s waters, but uses less than 1% of this amount (about 0,65-billion cubic metres of water annually).

Irrigated land in the Ethiopian portion of the Nile basin now stands at only 8 000ha -- which is 0,4% of the basin�s potential, at present estimated at 2,3-million hectares.

The picture is not that different when one looks at the tapping of hydropower. Researchers estimate that Ethiopia has a hydropower potential of about 60-billion kilowatt-hours per year, the bulk of which is embedded in the Nile basin. However, Ethiopia is currently using only 2% of these hydropower resources.

A water row between Cairo and Addis Ababa has been simmering for years. Last August, Ethiopia�s Minister for Trade and Industry, Ato Girma Birru, accused Egypt of using devious tactics to prevent Ethiopia from developing its water resources.

�Egypt has been pressuring international financial institutions to desist from assisting Ethiopia in carrying out development projects in the Nile basin,� he said. �It has used its influence to persuade the Arab world not to provide Ethiopia with any loans or grants for Nile water development.�

But, Ethiopia�s stance seems to have �softened� since then, according to official sources. Addis Ababa is now keen to resolve the problem bilaterally, it says.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Fayaza Aboulnaga said on a visit to Ethiopia last month that Cairo was willing to help develop Ethiopia�s irrigation systems for agriculture.

She spoke of Egypt�s readiness to provide technical assistance to Ethiopia for utilisation of Nile water resources. Officials in Addis Ababa believe Egypt wants a strong say in Ethiopia�s efforts to develop its hydroelectric and irrigation projects in the Nile river basin.

East African countries at the source of the world�s longest river have grumbled for years about the treaty. They say it was crafted to serve colonial interests in Egypt.

The agreement requires Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to seek permission from Cairo, 6 000km away, before drawing water from Lake Victoria to cultivate their parched fields.

�Kenyans are today importing agricultural produce from Egypt as a result of their use of the Nile water,� MP Paul Muite said in the Kenyan legislature recently.

�Why shouldn�t we use the same water to grow fruits in our country?�

The grumbling became a roar last month when Kenya�s Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs, Moses Wetang'ula, said his government considers the Nile Basin Treaty invalid and is seeking a new arrangement.

�Kenya will not accept any restrictions on use of Lake Victoria or the river Nile,� he said. �It however does not wish to be a lone ranger in deciding how to use the waters, and has consequently sought the involvement of involved countries.�

Egypt reacted swiftly. A Kenyan daily quoted Egypt�s Minister for Water Resources, Mahmoud Abu Zeid, as saying Kenya�s statements were �a declaration of war� against Egypt.

He threatened political and economic sanctions against Kenya, and said Nairobi could �not lay claim to sovereignty to protect itself from any action that Egypt may want to take�.

Egypt relies on the Nile for 98% of its irrigation water, and the country�s population of 70-million already uses considerably more than Egypt�s annual quota. With the population expected to grow to 86-million over the coming 25 years, securing the Nile�s waters is literally a matter of life and death for Cairo.

Kenya�s contribution to the Nile waters is negligible but Egypt fears that if Kenya disregards the Nile Basin Treaty other countries will follow.

Uganda�s Parliament recently proposed to drop the treaty in favour of a water-sharing scheme in which it would charge Egypt and Sudan for water use.

In Tanzania, currently in the midst of a severe drought, legislators have tabled similar proposals. -- IPS

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