Mankelklot Haile Selassie (PhD)

What the Ethiopian people overwhelmingly decided at the ballot box is non negotiable. That was , and, still is, the position of the Ethiopian people, and, that was what the Ethiopian people told KINIJIT in the town-hall meetings held at different places including Dire Dawa. Every thing should have emanated from this position of the Ethiopian people. Sad to say, it didn�t. So, history will remember that the system that was destroyed on May 15, 2005 showdown between the people of Ethiopia and the regime is reviving and at full swing again. And, let it be known that the people of Ethiopia simultaneously destroyed the system, and, laid down the foundation, and, let the leadership of the opposition forces build upon it. Unfortunately, the leadership miserably failed the Ethiopian people.

The people clearly knew that they have decisively defeated the regime at the ballot box on May 15, 2005. The international organizations, the opposition leaders, including Meles Zenawi himself new that the people of Ethiopia have won the election of May 15, 2005. But, the audacity of Meles Zenawi is that, sensing the poor stamina and the weakness in the commitment of the leadership, hence the challenge they can put up, he categorically denied that he has lost the election. The beginning of the reversal of the struggle started at this point.

THE BEGINNING OF SHIFT IN FOCUS:

At this point, the leadership of the opposition and the international organizations, particularly the United States Government, the UK and the EU, vividly realized that Meles is not going to budge from his position of denial at all. This acceptance of Meles�s determination by the leadership and the international organizations, forced them to succumb to the determination of Meles Zenawi and started to back out. As the result, the opposition parties, namely, KINIJIT and UEDF, came up with the infamous compromise proposal, called, �A Proposal to Solve the Current Political Impasse in Ethiopia.� Even though the leadership was fully aware of the determination of the people to fight it out, CUD and UEDF, widely opened their fortress to be attacked by the regime when they submitted a joint proposal to form a National Unity Government, which is another name for Transitional Government, that would have included the regime. Meles rejected it. The leadership took this self-defeating measure at the expense of the vital economic and political interests of the people. In fact, this was the juncture where the competition, so to speak, between the people and the opposition leadership for power began to show up very clearly. While the masked position of the leadership was to share power with Meles, as clearly indicated in the joint Proposal, the people�s position, as clearly manifested through their local representatives was, and still is, to remove the regime and completely possess the power. From this point onwards, the interest and the struggle to empower the people, on the part of the leadership of the opposition forces, started to decline.

THE LACK OF DECISIVENESS:

Meles was waiting for an opportune condition to jail the CUD leadership. So, the last straw for Meles was this last threatening 12-page plan of action distributed by CUD before they were jailed. Please read this plan of action paper. The threat was to force the regime to accept the eight-negotiation-points submitted by CUD to the regime. Here, it is very important to note that the Ethiopian people were not told the reason for this plan-of action that included blowing of horn, was to force the regime to accept the negotiation which the Ethiopian people has nothing to do with it. They were taken to jail before they were able to execute what they put on paper. The plan fizzled out because there was no one to follow it up. No government, let alone the ruthless Meles Zenawi, would tolerate this kind of a step-by-stepwise organized plan of action. After fourteen years of experience with the regime, the moment they propagated or leaked this kind of process driven and action oriented plan, they should have realized that they would be in a very serious danger. This is where their indecisiveness was clearly demonstrated, when, particularly in the political environment they were in, they formulated a plan that would give the regime ample time to preempt it. In a cut-throat type of political struggle such as in Ethiopia, a decision (the plan) should have been followed up with an aggressive and courageous immediate action. To enable one to take an immediate action, the plan must be a one itemed plan. And, that one, specified item, better be followed persistently and precisely, and, better be the one with potent impact. Or else, it would be suicidal. That was exactly what happened to the leadership of CUD.

Now, we have to accept the reality that the struggle is reversed (teQelbisual) and there is leadership vacancy created with regard to the opposition forces particularly which has to do with KINIJIT. For this political situation to take place is not surprising, because, the persistently demonstrated ineffectiveness and indecisiveness of the opposition leadership inevitably would have lead to this impotent conclusion. Now, the most critical question is would the political leaders of KINIJIT be effective when they are released from jail? I don�t think so. For one major thing they were not effective when they were out of jail, so, what would make them effective when they come out of jail. Secondly, it would not be easy to overcome the psychological impact on their mode of thinking, while they were in jail. Thirdly, Meles would force them to sign on what to do and what not to do, when they come out. Therefore these leaders would come out their hands tied. Therefore it is of an utmost important and timely to change or modify the strategy of the struggle as to how the future struggle is to be conducted. So, here is my proposal.

Whether one likes it or not, the regime is going to rule at least five more years. Therefore the bottom line of the struggle aught to be to create a situation where Meles would be forced to step down within the coming five years. He should not be left alone while he is destroying the nation and its interactive social and cultural fabrics that took hundreds of years to bring it to the exiting level. Nationalism is being developed in Ethiopia. Had it not been for this process of development strongly moving forward, the wishes of Meles, which was and still is to destroy Ethiopia would have come to fruition. The regime must be stopped from eroding it. For this is one of the main reasons for the removal of the regime in power is very critical. Having projected this important point, Ethiopia would not become like Somali or Rwanda, as some would like us to believe. They are trying their level best to get political mileage out of it. Where was Somali one hundred years ago? Ethiopia has passed the critical phase to break apart like what was witnessed in Somalia. Ethiopia is well into developing nationalism. Had it not been for this strong bond being developed between the Ethiopian society, the Oromo Liberation Front would have had declared independence in 1991 when there was no government to hold Ethiopia together. Considering Rwanda, name a whole ethnic group in Ethiopia vehemently against another ethnic group to the extent of wiping it out from the face of Ethiopia, or, like in Cosovo where the whole Albania is still vehemently against Serbia, another ethnic group. Can any one indicate the time when Eritreans came out to the streets in mass demanding to separate from Ethiopia in support of EPLF. Eritreans are flooding to Ethiopia now. Were, or, are, they being rejected by Addis Ababans? It is this process of national development that we have to protect vehemently from being eroded by Meles Zenawi.

Coming back to the issue of concern, the strategy that was effective up to the election of May 15, 2005, has totally failed to achieve the intended objective, which was to empower the people of Ethiopia. It failed due to lack of determined and decisive leadership. I think this is an undeniable fact. It was the right strategy, but, unfortunately, under the wrong leadership. Ripe political environment but ineffective and indecisive, and wrong political leadership. What an unfortunate historical coincidence.

THE STRATEGY TO BE PUT INTO ACTION:

The strategy that I am proposing is composed of three power basis. (1) The opposition forces inside Ethiopia, that include KINIJIT. I don�t think the organization will phase out. (2) Those pursuing armed struggle, and, (3) the opposition forces in Diaspora, those who are denied to enter Ethiopia to use the legal forum and participate, particularly, Meoson, EPRP, Hibrehizb and TAND. This strategy is to tackle the regime from three positions of strength. The key aspect of my proposal calls for a special type of coordination between those opposition forces in Diaspora, particularly those I mentioned above, and the leadership of the actively engaged armed struggle in Ethiopia. The opposition forces participating on the legal forum will do what they were doing so far. The alternative they have is to leave the legal forum and join the armed struggle. To take this type of ultimate action requires commitment, determination and decisiveness. Note what the former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel did just this week.

THE ROLE OF THE POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS IN DIASPORA AND THE ARMED STRUGGLE LEADERSHIP:

In this proposal the major role players are those opposition forces in Diaspora. These opposition forces in Diaspora were inside Ethiopia before. They have the connection with those who are left behind in Ethiopia. Therefore, the linkage, however weak, is there to be activated, made strong and militant, and, rescue the nation. There is a robust chance to enter Ethiopia through neighboring countries and take over, or, augment the struggle. Of course to take this type of decisive step requires a resolute determination on the part of the leadership.

Every time fire started it died down without any impact on the regime. It died down because there was no one to make it continue burning until the desired objective was achieved, which is the removal of Meles and his regime. Every time these fires started and died down they took away lives. People were tortured, jailed and have disappeared. The last fire consumed at least 46 Ethiopians that were murdered by Meles Zenawi using live ammunition for protesting vote rigging. Very unfortunately a number of these types of moves undertaken by the people were disclaimed by the leadership of the opposition forces. It is sad. The death of the 46 Ethiopians, the burning of tires on the streets, the blocking of the streets, etc., etc., should have been taken in a package form. To disclaim any part of the package is to disclaim the sacrifices made by the 46 Ethiopians. Which is tantamount to put it on the record that these sacrifices and the sacrifices made before were in vain.

Finally, I can boldly say that, the Ethiopian people are calling upon the political organizations in Diaspora to come inside and share the burden with them. Here, I am particularly referring to Meoson, EPRP, Hibrehizm and TAND. The people are ready and are in need of leadership determined to lead them. The other critical element in the formula is the role of those in the armed struggle. Had the armed struggle built up their strength with in the last fifteen years, they would have became formidable forces that would have kept the regime on its toes. In addition, (1) the opposition forces participating on the legal forum would have had a backup force that would have given them an upper hand in dealing with Meles. 2) The people�s decision made on May 15, 2005 election would have been respected, and , today, we would have witnessed a different system of government. And, Meles Zenawi would have not succeeded in OVERTHROWING the legal government elect. Still, they can continue their build up to reach a seriously challenging level while at the same time being the bridge or the conduit to facilitate the entering and the exiting of the opposition forces residing outside of Ethiopia. This is where the coordination of the two power basis, namely, the political organizations in Diaspora and the leadership of the actively engaged armed struggle inside Ethiopia are very critical. To continue the struggle in a determined mode and move it forward and fulfill the desire of Ethiopian people these two power basis have to come together immediately and formulate the manner of their coordination. It is doable and the Ethiopian people are waiting for this to take place.

Mankelklot Haile Selassie (PhD)