Lock, Stock and barrel A scenario of Zero sum game?
BY:BERHANE EYASU

May I excruciatingly draw the public that the unsightly manifestation of the senseless war between the two peoples? It is not to have down pat the anguish may be, but to look in to perspective if it can fetch us hope and light to see at the end of the tunnel through a learned lesson?

The EECC determined that loss of nationality and expulsions of individuals identified through Ethiopia�s security review procedures were lawful even if harsh for the individuals affected. However, deprivation of nationality and expulsion for any other reasons were deemed illegal.

Hiving spilled blood, sacrificed untold loses on record and paid tantamount indistinguishable price thinking we can sort messy things to get back in to normalcy. However, we are yet still there on a zero sum game at square one. War is very uncertain scenario and seems again looming. The worst thing is we are not definite where to go to and even what to do in a pragmatic fashion.
We have still got unresolved case over the drama of Independence, the fate of Ethiopians in Eritrea.

To my astounding bewilderment and to the disclosure of many, even at this moment after a decade, the Government of Eritrea has even officially curtailed the involvement of International Red Cross Society�s (IRCS) impartial involvement in helping Ethiopian Citizens quest for repatriation eager to end their suffering under the brutal hands of an enemy government..
The issue of our Afar people, the case of Asab and of course, unestablished boundary is left again with out no specification. 

During the war, the government deported the culprits because they were not peaceful ones. They have been asked to denounce the actions of their government, namely the unjust invasion of Shabia over Ethiopia and were encouraged to declare their innocence by dissociating from the war mongering government and failed for no justifiable reason what�s so ever. 

They denied their government�s involvement of invasion clearly and declined to denounce a call to name a spade is a spade. Despite many efforts to convince the Eritreans who was residing over in the country to help stand at least to have a principal stand against the invasion, they miserably failed to do so. 

It was a bitter experience and to the surprise of many Ethiopians who have had to go through agony to observe Some of the behaviours of Eritreans living in Addis when a school was bombed at Mekelle by their government ,they were having no mercy at all and even have had a fun out of the incident predicament.

There was still sympathy towards them by the incumbent government in Addis, even though some of them where even claimed to have been red-handed contributing money and intelligence resources from the heart land. Observing their deceitful behaviour, while passing the unambiguously red line, there was no option left except to endorse their eviction because it was the national security of the country at stake. Nothing more nothing less. 

Even so, others become still very involved and remained potentially dangerous by continuing to fuelling the war by psychologically supporting and indirectly sympathising the canopy rush of their government to finish the war, expecting the unthinkable, to see Ethiopia defeated, conquered, subjugated and controlled at no mercy. Were not they? To that effect the Prime minister was heard and listened addressing the public that the country was caught unexpectedly and Eprdf/TPLF people were fooled and wedged while under pants. Still I am baffled, was so the public, to believe his words because his claim contradicts the intelligence report left sheltered on his table. 

Surprisingly enough, now the same government who has tried justifying for their eviction is telling us quite objectionably by self conflicting endorsement that these people who had been put on an enemy comp were quite innocent. The same government, who worked for their eviction, is trying to convince us; their eviction was wide of the mark and hence should get right away back return to resume business as usual. It is a hard act to follow and very retrogressive to even preach, let alone to develop into visible practice of normal state behaviour.

If one has to deduce these trend and analogy one has to arrive at a conclusion that there were no war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and subsequently Shabia has not invaded an inch of Ethiopian Sovereign land. Who are we to trust out here? Is it the government who tried to convince the wider public on false pretexts by then for their eviction?

And hence admitting its blatant mistakes, if any? Nor is it that the government is under enormous pressure that we do not see through: the invisible negotiation from Shabia the unthinkable? Or is the international community like the usual government claim to assert as an escape goat to bring forth normalcy?
Like the abrupt stoppage of the war on its mopping stage? If so has the government made it clear to the Ethiopian mass and finalised any preconditions including legal procedures that is lieu under process? This seems easier said than done. What is it up to this moment?

Is the government trying to win the hearts and minds of, say, the people of Eritrea, if so at what cost to the local people of Ethiopia who still feel a astringent effect of the war?

Do not get me wrong. Such a decision evades Public confidence and strikes many unanswered questions than it readily, normally, provides. I am not here to depict any bluff against their return nor got any intention to flout the normal relations intended real or perceived, if any, between these historically one and the same people.

Let me also leave aside safely, fair and square, for those able historians and social anthropologists to name a few why was such appalling decision was served. Alas! It was a cause of paragon of death for many countless citizens and demised many villages that will never be there again. 

Likewise, the writer�s fear and a morsel concern is that the political moves and its maundering whereby the government is talking something in a vague, rambling, or incoherent ways has been a pattern to glossing over the real policy issue by blaming and counter blaming which always paves the way for a cloistered excuse to leave the main plot under the carpe:. The issue of Massawa and Asab!

We have seen countless surprising decisions taken over by this government many of which returning the evictees without consulting the public for its good cause tips the pinnacle and is also a sham not to name it. Why is this incredibly porous approach taken and the same mistakes repeated and chosen while facts on the ground testify differently? 

Are we not on the situation where our boarders are highly congested still with militarily hardware? Is it not the government of Eritrea still the top most militarized nation in the world ready for aggression given its behaviour on records? Is it not the government of Eritrea sending its committed citizens to Somalia to help AL-shabab and tried to destabilise Ethiopia through proxy war? The same can be taken about propaganda help in addition to the material and training assistance flowing in abundance to ONLF, OLF and others to name a few with out mentioning the source its funds. 

Is it not the Eritrean government very hostile still in its aggressive propaganda on its TV 24/7 against any form of normalcy?

Is not the Eritrean government closed any possible doors for negotiating on the port of Asab by denying to negotiate and passing it over to a very hostile country to get hold on to or may be selling Asab for the future and getting an armament to hurt and invade Ethiopia again. As an insurance against uncertainty in case we happen to claim it once under the true government who represents national interest of the People and the country? 

Can the Government see what ordinary citizens like my self do happen to predict or worry for? Why is such an obnoxious decision made and who is it serving for? Above all why such a haste decision? Have we consulted the wider public?
If not, why not? For how long does the government has to denying such a vital interference, prolonging the misery and the plight of our people which has significantly a telling effect on our strategic development to bring forth a tangible development progress. The reality is this government is highly suffocated on the use and accessibility of a port than any previous Ethiopian Governments in history. Why is then this government struggling to get port access? At whose cost and Why?

It has been a trade mark of the government, literally a customary practise now days to take actions first with out studying the possible consequences, investigations and studies then after. 

Not to confuse my readers let me give a different illustration.
A typical one is that the Millennium Bridge which was built by Japanese experts who are known to have a technically sound engineers in the world was reported to have been developing an all round problem around.

If the reported problem is true, chances are that it is due to a problem that has to do with the feasibility study prior to its construction. This has again to do with the terms of reference (TOR) endorsed by the government. The Tekeze dam was extended due to unforeseen circumstances wasting huge money and other earmarked resources which could have been indispensable in building primary schools, clinics and may be provision of clear water to the needy. There are many projects to name a few on the pipe line with out any adequate or proper studies or a proper assessment but were left to countless problems due to in adequate supervision and follow-up.

How many buildings were built in all the emerging regions and finally brought in to being with no available water to run such an establishment?
Come on twenty years is so long in government life span to commit such a silly spotlight. Some unlucky ones have not got that luxury and resource to commit such vociferous mistakes! I am not to count mistakes as it is inefficiency by itself. But this gets very not exceptional as always.

As we can witness from the pattern, the more they go without checking and counter checking, it obvious that the more wrongs they comes up with. That is really worrying. Is it not?

I am not here to blame, name or shame the government. But it is almost getting a habitual state of affairs that the country cannot afford to be doing mistakes at all any more.

The writer strongly believes that development is not just only building prestigious universities (if any?), or building RR road complexes or hosing designs nor running for elections.

Said that Development aspect in its real sense has to be supported by the very ideas and ideals of the people it has to take in. These universal approaches are a guarantee for its use, sustainability and advocate its philosophy. Under normal circumstances, the public has to feel and honour any decision made by the government. The converse is also true that the Government is expected to take an accountability and responsibility for its actions in a transparent and responsible way. Back on us it however seemed hollow and it is always difficult to say which is really which?

It seems that we are in chitchat under circumstances where there is no such a system at all? If failures are a pattern and it seems it needs consideration praise rather, is it not? It sounds to me. Aha who is responsible for such a roller blind failure any way? How does the government anticipate to taking risks both potential and perceived ones? How is it measuring them? Is there any ways, approach, or a system in place to minimize or if possible to outweigh them?

Making such a unconcealed decision to returning the evictees, what significance role does it really play? What lessons where learned from the war assuming that war is over? What guarantees have we got in place that similar gang ho were not to be relapsed or may be repeated? Before doing such a decision have the Government sorted out similar effect internally apriority? Have we compensated our own people who were deported from opposite side bare handed? Did we ask for lost business around billions which were wasted on the port? Did we give and act with urgency to internally displaced people due to the ugly nature of the war? Have we supported these business people of our own who lost or got confiscated their business on ports and struggled to pay their bank loans there after? Did the government act with priority to settle people who are still living in caves nearly after a decade after the bloody war? Or is the government happy to hand over Alitena, and Bademe and other environs. Will the government try the same common sense give first and negotiate latter? I am afraid my main worry is that the government will fail its people once again. Mark my words!

Having taken all these factors into account one may naturally ask the most glaringly question: At what cost are we returning the Eritreans now? Suddenly, what changes now?

If the government has not got ready answers based on cautious studies and proving evidences, I am afraid any striding move remains to be more of a political and gimmick. It does not bring about a real change. It is subsumed to attention-grabber. To borrow Prime Minster�s phrase it will remain on lock, stock and barrel at a scenario of A Zero sum game. 

Above all why then a false move that will perniciously keep us in a vicious trap and could cost us dearly now and could even trigger more so for generations to come.
Hence, the writer believes that any such budge has to be corrected at least with reciprocity urgently if there is a real hope for progress is to be sought for.

Any one out side of the Government side may ask why these all fuss again? We know that the government is for governing�..But I can not see any reason or aspect of governing on this sweltering case. The government has clearly failed with ultimatum. It should have handled issues of such nature with a better approach after all these years in a more peculiar than this loathsome way. It seemed, though, that it�s over actions are rather for ruling. The government should be told in a certain way there is no aspect of ruling what so ever when a national security is at stake, pure and simple! We have been caught by surprise and precipitate actions of this government than the enemy Government of shabia. We can not afford to be on abyss any more.

With out a complete normalcy and a striding effort to peace on both sides and Ethiopia�s main security guaranteed, any unilateral move is bound to fail.
The Algeris agreement was designed right from its very inception to save shabia. So not only was a failure, but it was wastage of an abundance resource and time. It was a total disaster! Like it, the decision taken to return Eritreans with no string attached to it will remain as one of the controversial, flagrant and most insensitive decision made by any government in office towards its people.

The Government may have to defend the indefensible mentioning a very misleading and fluid declaration namely: defending rights of individuals. To me it sounds shameful mockery of justices we have done to our people. 
The respect of private property is a fundamental rights .Yes! But Rights are not to be applied selectively by the Government to communities or individuals simply to suffice a political purpose. It has to be applied on merit it deserves across the board. 

One can safely observe that it is already a public knowledge those who are poised to return back are certainly having their own property or investing money in the west without any problem.

Let us pose for a second and buy the government�s hypothetical assertion that it is for a True reconciliation that squaring off starts from measure like this.
It will play a corner stone to the future relation of the two countries. Let�s also assume again that it is humanitarian action which responded to the cry of masses? I think it is a political gain to the government of Ethiopia to win back Eritreans for greater Ethiopia? The worst thing is that at this moment in time, none of these assumptions are bound to be true. Because facts on the ground significantly demonstrate contrary to all these assumptions.

Let us see a different perspective. I have heard Prime Minister Meles talking with regards to the behavior of the Government of Eritrea that there was no change of heart as yet. So the actions of his Government are to by pass the Shabian as a Government and try to reconcile with the people of Eritrea? How is that so possible Prime Minister? Who does represent the people? Unless you have got a second thought to use the so called Eritrean opposition parties whom you are trying hard to establish them on your likes but failed repeatedly. Sir there is no guarantee these individuals or parties can not replicate ISSAyas and his vision and cause more danger than you imagined. The problem that you are trying to solve is far more complex than you think it is really! I think you have to have a different perspective no later than any other manifestation very soon. It is a must otherwise it will be really too late.

Are you telling us to read between the lines that technically sooner or letter you will go to war to finish the unfinished business? Or are you thinking like an angel who can bring about any litmus heal that has got any presumed solution like a holy of holies and order your people to stay on the line and wait for its miracle?

You told us your government is secular and does not interfere with the functions of the church or mosque for that matter.
To me, which ever you take it; it just is a lofty and impracticable. In both countries, the stark reality still remains gloomy, unpredictable and very susceptible to any eventuality. 

In both countries, innocent civilians have been the direct victims of the bloody and senseless war. Do not forget that the bitter war was waged with very excessive hatred coupled with poisonous propaganda which has never stopped from Eritrean side though quite hibernating on the other side of the boarder. The people of Eritrea were subjects and victims of their own make ups. Unfortunately, they were also made to believe that they have been a victim of Ethiopia and foregoing Ethiopian Governments by the incumbent government led by Prime minister for centuries for being Eritreans. The problem is deep rooted than it seemed they were colonized by Ethiopia! That is the bizarre belief under sever coercion.

It will take a lot of effort and rigorous education to change it. Unfortunately, it may take centuries to heal.

It is not that easy as some in the government want us to believe. It is not as the putting off and on of a tap of water like eprdf/TPLF people used to get their cadre courses. This people�s emotion played on the back of their lost beloved ones, burned and destroyed villages and the likes. The emotion and anger may subside down but it has not sink in yet. Further more, I do not buy the idea that after the fall of Shabia (if it may) things will get rosy in Eritrea. We need to think big, your Excellency the prime minister. Part of the problem is that TPLF�s machining of these Eritreans that they were the victims of Ethiopian rules. How can we then believe without a precaution, declaring change of heart from one government side like your self with messy approach expect to solve the problem instantly? That is really fictitious to say the least! You just can not solve a huge problem, a magnitude of such nature by declaration of intent. Sorry for being pessimist

If so then, stop using the innocent people to play your dirty politics then. When they were expelled, it was a meticulous attack on their aggressive government. The ETHIOPIAN government attached a string for suitability of their actions. I think the government�s approach is trying upside down every thing in highly conflicting way that its end result helps neither party. Stop pretending the other way now by pretending to be good to the Eritreans. This is a dirty game; and is ambivalence at most. 

Above all it is infamy bound to fail. The government has to Walk the walks and talk the talks, or its inverse with practical guidance and tenable evidence before it is too late.

Otherwise, it is very uncustomary to expect to think that people will easily forget what happened to them in the past and expect them to give their trust to live a normal life as before. 

Every Ethiopian is looking with an eagle eyes timepiece how and when this government is capable of coming out of such disastrous policies? It looks, as though It is too early to get old and eventually too late to get smart on this eventuality? Let us hang around and see.

Come what may, we can not afford to lose on national security and on the well being of every Ethiopians again!