Comment on "Ethiopian Realty: Quo Vadis Opposition?"
By Hanna Yohannes

To Professor Tecola W. Hagos:
I just read your latest article, �Ethiopian Realty:
Quo Vadis Opposition?� and couldn�t help but relay my
reactions to you.

While I am a huge fan of your articulation of
Ethiopia�s national security interests and general
quality (lack of) of leadership over the last few
years, I am not sure where you are heading in terms of
your recent recommendations. I realize it is
impossible to get a glimpse of such complicated
recommendations over a couple of papers or over such a
short period of time, but I can not make sense of some
of your core recommendations.

First and foremost is your recommendation for a
�caretaker government�. Why is that necessary? If
the Opposition won the majority of the seats (as I
believe) and they formed a new government in
partnership with the more positive elements of the
current government (as I hope), they can choose to do
the following (in order of importance): (1) recover
lost Ethiopian territories and restore citizenship
rights to disenfranchised and outright abandoned
peoples, (2) rename/rebrand the �kilils�, (3) remove
Article 39 from the Ethiopian constitution (although I
oppose this move) and (4) change elements of the
current constitution as they see fit. Why is it
necessary to start from scratch? Doesn�t it negate
any lessons the system may have learned over the
years? And if your reasoning is that the Opposition
only won by getting protest votes, then so what? 
That�s what democracy is all about. It is far from
perfect and many a candidate on this earth has simply
pointed to an ineffective incumbent to rise to power. 
I am eighty percent confident that an overwhelming
majority of Ethiopians will vote the EPRDF out of
power solely because it land locked Ethiopia. (Even
if foreign governments rewarded such action by
contributing aid such that it grew the Ethiopian
economy by one hundred percent, the majority of
Ethiopians would still reject such a deal. Going from
$100/year to $200/year is not worth that much loss of
identity, security, self-respect, etc.) 

I believe the Opposition pointed to such data to garner votes�case
in point: Arqebe�s loss in Addis Ababa. I have yet to
meet or talk to some one who does not like this
guy�from his effectiveness, work ethic and
personality. Yet he lost. All the Opposition had to
say was that he was involved in land locking Ethiopia.
He certainly would have lost my vote if I had the
opportunity to cast. My point in all of this is that
protest votes are indeed a mandate. I fail to see why
the Opposition should be robed of an election (that I
believe they won). I fail to see why they can not
work within the framework of the current constitution
and alter it as they see fit. Perhaps you are
thinking of some technical or other big picture items
that are completely going over my head. If so, I look
forward to understanding these points better in your
future writings.

On a more disturbing note, in �Part One/II. Brief
Recoup of Three Ethiopian Regimes/C: Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi�, you wrote the following: ��lopsided
economic development concentrated in Tygreai�� I take
issue with this. I find this completely inconsistent
with your past writings and all together wrong. I
have heard many folks type this nonsense and did not
expect it from you. Someone skimming your paper may
miss this point but it stood out like a sore thumb for
me. Do you have any data to support this point
(allegation)? I am talking about Federal Budget
allocations, regional economic growth rate data, etc. 
And mind you, you will have to account for the fact
that Tigray was a war zone in the 70�s and 80�s and
there was massive underinvestment in Tigray by the
previous two administrations. Given all this, I think
you will be unable to prove, �lopsided development��at
least to me. All Ethiopians should be happy if there
is growth anywhere in Ethiopia. No need to pander to
anyone who does not share this view.

I also thought your comment that Meles wants to create
a �State of Tigreai� to be unbelievable. I don�t
imagine that he, or those who support him, are that
ignorant. (On the contrary, I think he is a smart
individual.) I am sure they know that Tigray and
Ethiopia are not separable. But then again, you were
an insider and obviously someone that we should listen
to carefully.

On a more funny note, I really like the humor you
throw in once in a while in your writings (intentional
or not). In this article, in �Part One/II. Brief
Recoup of Three Ethiopian Regimes/B: Colonel Mengistu
Hailemariam�, you wrote, �The first act of political
�development� of Mengistu�s version of revolution was
to expropriate the cars of wealthy individuals and
drive around at high speed about the city.� I was
laughing my head off. I can imagine him doing
something like that. Likewise when you mentioned that
the late Emperor was transported in a mini VW at his
end. Sad but you have to laugh at these guys/events
once in a while.

Thanks for a great article. Until the next time.

Hanna Yohannes
June 16, 2005