�In my opinion, the concern to Ethiopians is no longer the personality who will come to power or who will remain in power, but the election process through which he/she rise to power.�

INTRODUCTION

Everywhere, both inside and outside Ethiopia, the coming National Election is given special attentions, and it is generating unusual anticipations and hope. Wonderful, if the election achieves some changes, traumatic if the election processes fall short of the anticipated outcome. But, there is also a self-deceiving scenario that the election will bring new leaders who will introduce fundamental changes to cure the spoils of the last three decades. Realistically, the nature of the existing regime makes such hope far-fetched and unattainable. On the other hand, no one can correctly predict the social behaviors, and the latent power there is to bring about dramatic changes. The images of poverty, disease and political repression have repeatedly shuttered the hopes and aspirations of the citizens. There may be no more patience left to make the existing conditions last longer. In such state of deep frustrations, the heat may reach a boiling point in no time. And when that happens, the move to divorce Ethiopia from its present unholy union with men of peccadillo and surfeit may be just around the corner. 

Still, the possibility that the election would come and pass with little or no change exists, and it is not an unlikely event. Fortunately, on the positive side, there has been substantial moderation in the political thinking of Ethiopian people. To that effect, the guiding light to the steps and measures has been wisely and consciously established to balance the outcome of desirable and undesirable events. Thus, we can fairly assume that both the ordinary citizens and the intellectuals have developed common understanding how to bring about change in the leadership. The concern to Ethiopians is no longer the personality who will come to power or who will remain in power, but the election process through which he/she rises to power. This philosophy has guided the thinking of Ethiopians and the approaches to solve the political problems peacefully. It is a prolific and healthier philosophy that shows a remarkable maturity and adaptation to the complex modern politics. Therefore, in the coming election process, the regime�s conduct and behavior will be tested and measured by Ethiopians, and there is no doubt that it will also be under the microscopic watch of the World. 

CHANGES THROUGH ELECTION

The Concept of Election

Whether Ethiopia�s 2005 Election will be a fair and legitimate election process or not, time will tell. Election implies the existence of a free society and a system of government where the transfer of power from one party to another is done based on democratic principles and systems. Election also implies the existence of contending political parties formed based on rules and laws. Election is a system used by people to revitalize or reform the existing political and socioeconomic programs that are malfunctioning and are in the state of despondency. Hence, election is a system by which citizens change the directions of their economic and political philosophies by ousting incumbents and replacing them with those who have better insights and strategies. Election is a magnificent opportunity where every citizen exercises his/her ultimate power that comes with voting rights. It is a sacred power that each person has and can use to vote-in good leaders and vote-out bad leaders. 

Conducive Conditions for Election

The conditions that exist in Ethiopia are not conducive to political changes. This is mainly because the leaders in power are dictators who have grabbed power by force and are not willing to relinquish it even when the people demand. It is not in the nature of a dictatorial regime to share power, and to acknowledge and accept other political parties (opposition groups) to play any role in the business and affairs of the country. Dictators give no room to opposing political entities. Political parties, if and when become born would be systematically destroyed and stranded on the streets. Political parties resort to go underground or leave the country to continue their struggles in exile. The Ethiopian people have gradually relied and looked up to the oppositions groups to see changes and end to their misery. Dictators have good reason to perceive contending political parties as �enemies�. Dictators have also difficulty considering the people as the �higher authority� and their masters. The roles are reversed: the leaders are the masters and the people have become their servants. The leaders of the regime do know that they have no contract with the people. The fact that the people did not put them in office, the leaders, perhaps rightly so feel that they owe them nothing. The leaders are proud of their long military struggles and accomplishments and they strongly believe that it was their own sacrifice that brought them to power. They feel indebted only to the militia and their followers that brought them to power. These sentiments are manifest in all actions and every policy they crafted.

Election in the absence of independent institutions in charge of the election processes is bound to deliver empty hope. This is familiar to Ethiopia people. Election taking place in a country where there is no democracy discourages the development of political parties. However, any election effort would bring a unique opportunity to introduce new culture and new tradition that would expose the people to new concepts and practices. Therefore, the idea that democratic institutions and system must be in place first in order to conduct fair election may not be the right political thinking. Repeated election practices may change and prepare people to adopt the principles of democracy and subsequently a democratic system of government. In Ethiopia, the regime in power is not likely to leave the election process to other people and out of its total control. Therefore, the election of 2005 may not be a fair game. But if the leaders behave recklessly obstructing the fair election process and engage in obstructing and thwarting the voting rights of the people, it would trigger civil unrest that may be detrimental to their existence. This may give birth to rule of democracy in an expected way. 

Lessons of Transitions 

During the last three decades, Ethiopians have experienced historic misfortunes. First, the dramatic fall and end of the ancient kingdom took place unexpectedly to some, to others, just as they expected it. Aggravated by devastating famine, Ethiopians had finally become tired with Haileselassie just as he was himself getting tired of every thing around him. Haileselassie�s economic programs had failed to produce enough to feed the growing poor. But, only a few times in history, the giant gates to the highest office of the land were ever made easy for any ordinary person to enter. There was no one more suitable and ambitious for the Throne than Mengistu Hailemariam. Mengistu had all the tools - burning desire and daring passion to do what he was never trained for � become a leader. But, he was destined to become one when he found the house badly cracked. The incredible weight of authority and power that he carried proved to be though, overwhelming so much that he was incapacitated by trepidation and acute insecurity that led him to state of total madness, and subsequently into insanity. The supreme power he presided over became a great danger and put the country in a perilous position. Mengistu started dismantling the nation that had taken centuries to build. The territories and unity and harmony of the peoples, the modest development have been the fruits of centuries of immense dedications by the people and their leaders. Some of Mengistu�s programs were amazingly impressive, but the finish was as dramatic as his beginning, and all was in the dust before he boarded the plane to leave the soils of Ethiopia with his one-way ticket. He left in hurry leaving the country he loved, for which he had killed thousands in disarray. There was no second thought to his action and there was no regret even years later. He left behind hundreds of thousands of his armies stranded on the streets of Addis Ababa, Asmara, in the high seas and everywhere. He did not negotiate for their safety as he did for his life and safe exit. The Ethiopian people were unable to fight the enemy that was leaving, and the enemies that were entering the capital city on foot, horseback and of course, in Tanks.

Nothing big has changed for Ethiopians since then. Admittedly, there have been a few changes in some areas. But, the crises that vilified Haileselassie accomplishments and brought his regime down have become much worse after thirty years! There are some noticeable changes in regard to the beautification of Addis Ababa and Mekele and some impressive highways connecting a few major cities. These are inarguably the pride of the leaders in power, and they cannot be denied the credit even if their failures fill the pages that is a mile long. 

The illegitimate government of Ethiopia has become legitimate by virtue of its long existence in power. The regime is recognized as a legitimate government by nations more than they are in the hearts of the Ethiopian people. That was necessarily arranged and done by concerned government for the sake of peace and stability in the country that is hosting a great many International communities. After all, Addis Ababa and the surroundings are no more important to Ethiopia than they are to Africa and the rest of the World. Many important international economic and diplomatic discourses take place in Addis Ababa. Therefore, if changes are sought and they are, the international communities would like to see them take place in a peaceful manner. They would like to see strong internal political system evolve. They would be delighted to see strong political parties born and become forceful so as to compel the government to hold and allow fair election. This is the safe and sound political course that the Ethiopians will have to pursue. That is also something that is carefully arranged. 

Political Parties

One may correctly argue that there are no true political parties in Ethiopia. That is because the regime�s repressive system does not permit the opposition group to exist and operate as political parties. The regime will not win any popularity contest in Ethiopia. Knowing that, its continued existence in power is maintained by strong military presence and policing. Political activities and such organizations are labeled as saboteurs and subvert, and are destroyed on the first day they started speaking and walking on political ground. Many leaders of such political activities have been thrown to jail where they still remain incarcerated. However, many political groups have flourished in foreign countries out of reach to the regime. The policy of the regime restricting and discouraging political activities has proved counter productive, because by driving the oppositions out of the country, the opposition parties had better opportunity to do even more damage to it by painting the leaders� images in the eyes of the World as a brutal dictators. Thus, the opposition groups operating from abroad have used the political machinery of other nations effectively to ostracize and alienate the regime�s diplomatic corps and the leaders from their international counter parts. The regime was finally compelled to crack open itself in order to accommodate the political parties to function and operate within the country, and even to allow them to participate in elections. Presently, there are many strong home-based political parties with large followers and constituents. However, the Political Parties that have their base in Europe and North American also play major roles in areas of diplomatic, logistics, technical and financial resources, and are equally essential to bring political changes in Ethiopia. 


LOGISTICAL DIFFERENCES 

Within Party System 
The Regime (EPRDF)

The main engine and brain of the ruling party, the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party Democratic Fronts (EPRDF) is the Tigrean People Liberation Front (TPLF). They are composed of the core leaders who together with Eritrean People Liberation Front (EPLF) brought down Mengistu�s regime. The leaders of TPLF, which is the most or perhaps the only powerful component of EPRDF had their own internal conflicts and up rise as early they celebrated their honeymoon after the victory over the Ethiopian armed forces. Then, each leader in the party was looking for the perfect and comfortable place (position and post) for himself in the internal and external political dynamics of Ethiopia. The leaders as a whole with equal power and authority of command had embarked on the day-to-day affairs and business of the nation. But, the nature of government business unlike their past experiences required hierarchy applicable for the palace job. The labor division and power sharing mechanism did not work out well for EPLF� leaders. As is the case with dictators, no disagreement of this nature would subside and come to an end peacefully and harmoniously without a drastic cut and attrition. Frictions among the ambitious elements of the leaders continued. The individuals who were dangerously equipped and armed remained watching each other as the differences continued simmering in increasing temperatures. Each of the TPLF�s leaders is a living proof of bitter struggles they waged against each other same as they did together against the Ethiopian government. Each is a survivor of bitter infighting that had consumed many of their comrades. Each is a potential killer. But once in Addis Ababa, they had somehow lost their killer instincts. They have amazingly acted more civilized than Mengistu. Mengistu shot and killed every body around him whom he suspected, disliked and acted against his order. Leaders of TPLF have learned the potent means of destroying each other without a gunshot. Half of the former leaders of TPLF have been jailed or forced to exile. Through attrition, the leaders have reduced their numbers and their strength by one half. EPRDF is not any more the powerful force it used to be. Many loyalists of the regime have left their posts finding political asylums abroad. Nonetheless, EPRDF is still powerful by any measure of a dictatorial regime. In light of the political forces in the country, the strength of EPRDF may be skin-deep, and they would not stand any political heat.

Among Parties
The Opposition Group

A year ago, fifteen political parties came together and created a coalition called the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF). The aim is simple and clear � to oust the regime of PM Meles. But, that is a misleading misconception. Their aim is not just to oust the leaders. Their main mission and goal is to bring changes that would give hope to millions who are struggling to survive, especially those who are stricken by famine and diseases and are in dire conditions. The various political parties joined forces and resources realizing the formidable power of the regime in power to force change that will not come without their interventions politically. Most members of the coalition have their home bases outside the country. But, major political parties who spear head the challenges against EPRDF are inside the country, and they have substantial followers and nation-wide supporters. Both outside and inside, the political parties cannot achieve their goals without each other�s support. The opposition groups that are based abroad could be very effective in acquiring diplomatic supports that would give essential and crucial moral support to the opposition parties inside the country. More over, the external group can be huge sources of technical, financial and logistic assistances. The groups inside will play decisive roles in unseating EPRDF. 

Because the coalition was formed just a year ago, many different approaches that each would like to see implemented have not been easy to determine and assert. They are still fine-tuning their combined strategies and efforts to compete against EPRDF in the next election. UEDF is composed of significant and smaller political parties. This has created minor hurdle in resources allocations and distributions and their specific roles. But, that is not the most burning issue facing the United Front. Minor differences have emerged as to the roles of those home-based political parties and the political parties in exile. The political parties in exile not only serve in terms of their technical and financial resources, they are also the back up should the regime in power goes foul with the leaders of the opposition groups operating in the country. They have tremendous resources and positions to challenge any wrong action of the regime. There may be a few other superficial and some fundamental issues to be cleared and agreed upon by the members. In light of the grave and intolerable conditions facing Ethiopians, it will be unthinkable to imagine that any one would place party interests before the interests of the Ethiopian people who desperately need the help of fellow Ethiopians. It will be hard to imagine that there is no correct approach and right way to find a workable solution. It will be also hard to imagine that any of the political parties would reject the right solution or fail to offer the best solution, and to do so in the name of Ethiopia. 

The political parties had their own individual turfs for a long time and had operated independently. It is not uncommon to run into misunderstandings, apprehension and miscommunications for leaders of complex political constituents. It is not easy to come to agree to each other quickly in such complex arrangements that would require deep trust and understanding. The UEDF is organized in a manner that any differences could be resolved. It has different branches for this purpose. The leaders and followers of political parties must realize that any obstacle to the united group is a direct political gain to EPRDF. Any party inside the country or abroad should avoid impeding unity by enlarging and exaggerating their differences. Doing so and affecting the mission of the United Front would be betraying the Ethiopian people. The Ethiopian people need change and no one except EPRDF should deny them that change.


CONCLUSION

In the eyes of the World, Ethiopia is an ugly image that no one thinks of as a nation. Its poverty, war devastated towns and villages, diseases that are taking dozens of lives every second, repression of the regime have given the country the look of a cursed land. But, we know that nations have fought in wars that had lasted 100 years. We know also that nations and people have leveled their country in struggles among themselves before they become industrialized. We know also that people of present great nations had sifted seeds from dust bowls during the absolute famine periods they had gone through before they became affluent. 

Who would believe that Ethiopia is supporting other people as it is starving? Its coffee, hide, gold, oil seeds, live cattle and other exports support other people in the World to live well. Its natural resources are backbone to the developments of other nations and societies. Africans, Asians, Europeans, Arabs and Americans are using the huge manpower that poor Ethiopia produced during the last 75 years. If any nation loses the labor and technical know-how of the Ethiopian expatriates, there would be a big hole in the heart of its economy. Think of the combined resources that Ethiopia has lost to all nations around the World. It would be a staggering figure. With all these happening, why Ethiopia should not be a backward nation? Ethiopia�s wealth and resources are deliberately being overshadowed by images of poverty by those who are still benefiting from its resources and minute wealth. They knew more than us about the potentials of Ethiopia, and what it could be when it becomes a peaceful and a stable place for its children to work together and develop its immense resources. We know what Ethiopia can be, and will be when it is developed: the breadbasket of Middle East and the rest. 

The major cause of famine, and diseases in Ethiopia has always been the repressive regimes that came one after another. Ethiopians should not blame themselves or look else where for the causes. Ethiopians should not also look beyond themselves to find the cure and the solutions. No nation is better keen than the Ethiopians to see the people become democratic and affluent society. Even if Ethiopia does not take away any thing from any people by developing itself, nations have mounting problems of their own to be concerned about Ethiopia�s internal or even its external problems. Think of the Badme war! Therefore, the courage and virtues to end the suffering of the less fortunate rest upon able Ethiopians. 

There is concern that more and more individuals and political groups are measuring their participation and roles in the national politics based on their individual gains and benefits. This is a tragic squalor that no enlightened person should fall into. Ethiopians have much greater roles to make Ethiopia a democratic nation. Certain Party leaders have shown attitudes that nothing will be done if they are not part of it or in it. Such mentality is also reflected among some followers of political parties. Followers of political parties have often taken uninhibited liberty to interpret, often wrongly, the ideas and principles of their Parties. They have acted as designated spokespersons when they were not. They have given explanations on behalf of Political Parties when they were not delegated to do so on issues that their leaders have not yet taken stands and positions. Party followers have challenged each other as if they were official representatives to assert policies and decisions. These individuals knowingly and unknowingly serve the interests of the dictators, which they claim that they are fighting against. The Internet has made the party politics more complex and sophisticated. In light of the sophisticated propaganda and confusions, the challenges to find and stand on the true causes of Ethiopia are extraordinary.

God Bless Ethiopia & Ethiopians!

END