ETHIOPIA THE PHOENIX: THE NEW CARETAKER GOVERNMENT

By Tecola W. Hagos                                                                            

I. The Role of the 2005 Election

The Election of 2005 has proven beyond any doubt what we have expected it to show to all of us: the TPLF led government of Meles Zenawi is a house of cards. The election result has far more implication than just counting ballots and declaring winners and losers. The importance of the election should not be seen in light of such limited purpose for establishing a new government. Such conclusion is a premature and a very shallow reading of the true significance of the dynamic political process underway throughout Ethiopia. The Opposition has played a major role to bring to Ethiopia a degree of hope and solidarity in the face of treason and betrayal of a people and their utter humiliation in the world�s stage by Meles Zenawi for the last fifteen years. 

The members of the Opposition must not assume that they are now entitled to sit down with Meles Zenawi and negotiate the allocation of political power among their candidates and those of the battered EPRDF. They must take the upsurge of the people of Ethiopia as an indicator that the next step is not the formation of a new government to be run by Meles Zenawi and associates, but a mandate to move a step ahead for the formation of a caretaker government removing Meles Zenawi from office.

There is no Biblical or Koranic law that dictates to us that after such massively fraudulent election setup by a ruling body, which nevertheless brought out to light the weaknesses of the ruling government, that an opposition group may not continue its struggle to fulfill the wishes and aspirations of the people of Ethiopia by going further than what a normal election would have entailed�the establishment of a new government. It is a point that would trouble small minds, but not individuals who are creative, daring, and dedicated to bring about a process that will lead to the election of a truly democratic government. The liberation of Ethiopia just started.

The way we deal with the outcome of the Ethiopian Election 2005 may be, indeed, our unique Ethiopian contribution to political philosophy. What started out as an election staged by a dictatorial and ruthless government to perpetuate its control of power, may turn into the process of the establishment of a caretaker or transitional government to prepare the nation for a true democratic election under a new Constitution in a year or two. In other words, rather than nullifying all the results of the election of 2005 in toto, except in Tygrei and few other limited areas, we may use the result of the election from most of Ethiopia for some other purposes in order to form the constitutive body to form the new caretaker government to draft a new constitution and conduct new democratic elections in two years. We, Ethiopians, are great in improvising and putting our stamp on anything we have adopted from the world whether it is Christianity, Islam, socialism, et cetera. Changing an election for a new government into a �caretaker� government in order to stage later a more democratic government under a new constitution should not be seen as impossibility.

In a previous Editorial we had declared the Election results of 2005 to be invalid and void. There is no contradiction between that position and what we have just advocated above. As far as the election is seen to be for the formation of a new government to continue the government of Meles Zenawi and the dominance of the EPRDF, that election is invalid and void. However, since there is also the valid expression of the will of the people clearly stated in huge demonstrations and election results in major cities, that upsurge of political expression should not be discarded but put to new use.

II. The Responsibilities of the Opposition

The real test for the members of the Opposition�s success is not how well they campaigned and succeeded in getting their candidates winning votes, but in the manner they handle the fluid political situation in Ethiopia in the days ahead. Are they going to accept the election results and work for the next five years under the manipulation of Meles Zenawi? Under such circumstances, how effectively can they promote the interest of Ethiopia? How are they going to deal with all the illegal �international agreements� such as the Algiers Agreement of 2000 that Meles Zenawi had signed?  How are they going to deal with the thousands of victims of Meles Zenawi�s violent actions? How are they going to deal with thousands of Ethiopians incarcerated for political reasons or concocted crimes? How are they going to respond with the one sided highly prejudicial encroachment of the United States Government in the internal affairs of Ethiopia?  How are they going to deal with �Eritrea� and its leaders? What would they do with the decision of the Boundary Arbitration Commission?

The above questions deal with very serious issues and very difficult to give simple answers to. Complex problems are not going to be solved by prolonged effort trying to untangle the intricacies of past misdeeds and manipulations. This is the one instance where the solution adopted by Alexander when confronted with the Gordian Knot may be a good example to follow. [An intricate knot tied by King Gordius of Phrygia and cut by Alexander the Great with his sword after hearing an oracle promise that whoever could undo it would be the next ruler of Asia.] Blast the problem with one decisive stroke rather get oneself tangled in a futile attempt to unravel the great knot of deception, betrayal, and treason tied by Meles Zenawi and his government of fifteen years. 

Jurists come up with wonderfully sounding principles, such as �rebus sic stantibus� (Civil Law), and its equivalent doctrine in Common Law of "frustration, impossibility and impracticability" of contracts, wherein circumstances (things) have changed to such an extent that require new solutions. The 2005 Election process has become a watershed marker of such new reality that for anyone not to realize the reality of such a paradigm shift tantamount to utter stupidity. In order to make sense of the political reality in Ethiopia at this moment, consider foremost the fact that the political and judicial system has been corrupted beyond repair by Meles Zenawi that the only way to bring salvation to Ethiopia is to start fresh from scratch. At any rate, no form of coalition type government will be able to do anything worthwhile to improve the situation in Ethiopia. Any form of relationship between the government of Meles Zenawi and the Opposition members reminds us of mixing good wine with bad wine in order to improve the quality of the bad wine; instead, what would happen is that the good wine is also corrupted. The Parable of the attempt of trying to put new wine in old bottles as written in the New Testament [Matthew 9: 17] is another apt lesson to remember. It will not work!

If the Opposition harbors any other agenda other than what it has stated in different forums, articles and manifestos/programs, it runs the risk of being perceived as an opportunistic predatory group victimizing Ethiopians worse than all the nasty regimes Ethiopians had encountered in the past. This is a time for astute judgment, patriotic zeal, courage, and above all sincerity.  The new Ethiopian reality demands that Meles Zenawi must be removed from power, and a caretaker government must be established with the coalition formed by the Members of the Opposition, with an election to be held within a few months in Tygrie for new representatives from the area since all the 2005 elected members were illegally elected as a result of total monopoly and violent intimidation by the TPLF, in order to form part of the caretaker government. 

III. How to Deal with Members of the EPRDF

A good politician sees a potential alliance in every contender. Political momentum is like an ocean tide; it waits for no man�rid it on time, otherwise you will be left beached on the shores of failure and humiliation and even prosecution. The Opposition members must not regard every leader in the EPRDF as someone to be vanquished. Rather people should think of such members as potential allies who may be indoctrinated, influenced, even converted to see the light. Except for Meles Zenawi and a handful of undercover agents of foreign governments, most members of the EPRDF are deep at heart proud of their heritage and history as Ethiopians and would be able to redirect their political affiliation in order to benefit Ethiopia. It is a fact that in the last fifteen years that Meles Zenawi used and abused every member organization of the EPRDF in order to promote his own political power. The opposition has tremendous advantage now to isolate Meles Zenawi and to throw him out of office completely and start a new transition government.

The different member organizations of the EPRDF can be meaningfully absorbed by the Opposition without affecting the democratic coalition of the Opposition. In plain language, such process is called shifting of political allegiance, a process that is commonplace in any mature political system. Some of the members of the EPRDF may think that abandoning Meles Zenawi and his cronies is opportunistic. Such belief is a mistaken belief, when the issue is the best interest of a nation, the standard of behavior is measured by the magnitude of benefit that the nation gets out of such shifting of political allegiance and not what personal loyalty is broken. At any rate, from Meles Zenawi�s point of view, everyone is expendable except Meles Zenawi, and he will throw off his associates at a drop of a hat if the question is his survival. Need we go far to illustrate this point? Look what happened to Tamrat Lyne, Sey Abrha, and the Twelve TPLF Dissenters and countless others. So far, the leaders of the organizations affiliated with Meles Zenawi�s TPLF have been serving the single interest of Meles Zenawi and his foreign masters and handlers. It is time for such leaders to face up to reality and for once to choose to serve the interest of their country.  Was there any instance where the interest of Ethiopia was given priority by Meles Zenawi in all the years he has been in power?  Not a single instance.

One of the most dangerous people in Ethiopia is Sebhat Nega next to Meles Zenawi. He should be handled with great care by the opposition. As a rule of thumb, one should not negotiate or deal directly with such a person. This is a man capable of turning the least obnoxious looking item into a major political setback to those who oppose him. Nothing he suggests should be accepted on its face value or even after inside-out analysis by the Opposition. Some observers have indicated the development of a budding personal friendship between Sebhat Nega and one of the Opposition leaders for some time now. If such is the case, such personal relationship should never be allowed to grow more than just that into forming the basis of political decisions. The public images of individuals in leadership position do matter especially in a time like this, where perception is as important as reality. The other dangerous personality who will not hesitate to order his troops against the people of Ethiopia is Samora Yunis. The Opposition must find a way to reach both troops and their field commanders from obeying such losing leaders. It is just a matter of few weeks or months before the collapse of the leadership of Meles Zenawi in any format.

To the public, individuals like Seyoum Mesfin are marginalized TPLF members, who have been gradually emasculated by Meles Zenawi, and where Meles had placed individuals within their respective organizations controlling them and making crucial decisions within their respective Ministries. Some individuals believe that such individuals with the right offer and convincing dialogue would fly off the coop. However, people should be careful from jumping to conclusions of disharmony between Sebhat Nega, Seyoum Mesfin, and Meles Zenawi.  We believe these three individuals may have airtight relationship due to overlapping political, familial, and economic interests.

IV. The Danger of Participating in a Third Term

If the Opposition decides to participate in a government set up by Meles Zenawi, it is going to be a kiss of death to the Opposition members. The Opposition members will lose the credibility they have gained in such a short period even at much faster and shorter time than their climb to power. The Opposition must understand the fact that Ethiopians from end to end have looked up to them for leadership not because of their past achievements but for the hope they represented for future salvation, prosperity, and unity of the people of Ethiopia.

Some individuals far more cynical than some of us see the whole 2005 election process as a fiasco orchestrated by Meles and Sebhat Nega. The loses of the EPRDF candidates in Addis Ababa are nothing more than a form of controlled blood-letting, simply meant to remove leaders whose usefulness to Meles Zenawi have been thoroughly exhausted. Some even suggest that there was prior arrangement with some of the leaders for a new political arrangement to replace the old coalition members of the EPRDF. The purpose of such exercise was to enable Meles Zenawi representing the TPLF to survive by forming a new type of �EPRDF� with members of the Opposition. Thus, we are to suffer now the ignominy of having Meles Zenawi for a Third Term working with new coalition leaders, singing the same old song.

If such extremely dangerous and devious arrangement has ever been contemplated in the past or is being discussed at this point with Meles Zenawi and supporters, it will be a grave mistake. Ethiopians will be so incensed with that form of betrayal that no amounts of flagellation later will ever illicit forgiveness from the Ethiopian people. Contrary to the hastiness of its past responses, the United States Government has been very restrained in its pronouncements about the Ethiopian election of 2005. Indeed, such behavior may be masking the activities of the Government of the United States behind the scene. We see some of the footwork of the United States manipulation in the unfolding drama of the current Ethiopian election. It will be premature for anyone to undermine the role being played by the Government of the United States in the ongoing political machination in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, the responsibility to shield the people of Ethiopia and ourselves from further destruction by foreign powers lies in the hands of the Members of the Opposition. They are going to be held accountable to a much higher standard of patriotism, intellect, and responsibility since they are all very well experienced and well educated individuals compared to the rag-tag freedom fighters just coming out of the bushes in 1991.

V. Beware of Lawlessness

Vigilantism and attacks on civilian population based on ethnic hate must be absolutely condemned by the Opposition through all forms of communications, such as their own websites, newspapers, radio, and television. The leaders of the Opposition must be in the forefront quieting down the population and all criminal minded individuals who are agitating and attacking Tygreans in Addis Ababa and other urban centers. There is no room for such types of criminal behavior. It has come to our attention already that some over zealous individuals have been demanding that families be evicted from their homes on the ground that the property was nationalized by the Derg and was not returned to them. Whatever claims individuals may have should only be settled through proper legal process. There is enough time for settlement of property disputes only if we have the political structure and administration in proper order first. 

An apt Ethiopian proverb describes what is beginning to happen at the instigation of over zealous few individuals in Addis Ababa and vicinity. �Yejib chikul qend yineksal.� Meles Zenaw may be wounded, but do not give him an excuse of such lawlessness to unleash his forces on law abiding Ethiopians. He may declare a state of civil war if such vigilantism and attacks based on ethnic identity escalates to any degree. He might be justified in his actions to safeguard victims of such ethnic based attacks. He may totally bring the entire nation under military rule. If there is an orchestrated attack on Tygreans and other ethnic groups, we might urge him to do so in defense of innocent civilians being butchered by unruly mob action. If such tendency of attacking members of an ethnic group is not nipped in the bud through massive outpouring of condemnation and instruction by the leaders of Opposition, such primitive vigilantism and lawlessness may derail what had been gained so far. We will not hesitate either to endorse military crackdown on such lawlessness irrespective of who is the leader of Ethiopia. May be Ethiopians are not ready for democratic change if they choose to go in that direction of vigilantism and lawlessness.

Tecola W. Hagos

May 18, 2005